What a game… Rich Hill struggled early and didn’t even make it to the 4th inning. The Bullpen picked him up and shut out the good hitting Brewers the rest of the way. A big kudos to Billy Petrick, Michael Wuertz, Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry for keeping the game close and giving the Cubs a chance to come back. If the Brewers are able to tack on a few more runs the Cubbies might have given up. Instead, the Cubs were able to pick away at the Brewers and thanks to walk off homerun by Ramirez made it 7 wins in a row.
The Cubs will have their work cut out for them today. They will be facing Ben Sheets who is one, if not they most elite pitcher in the central division. The Cubs will be sending up the tall lefty Sean Marshall. The Cubs so far in 2007 have won 6 games and lost 4 against the Brewers. They will play the brewers 5 more times this year including today. The Cubs need to win these games. According to www.sportsclubstats.com, each game will increase or decrease the cub’s chance of making the playoffs by about 3.5%. The site calcualtes this percentage by simulating the rest of the season millions of times. It uses a basic coin-flip method to decide winners but I think it still provides an accurate estimate at how well the team needs to play in order to make the playoffs. There is lots of data on the site as well. For example it lists a large number of possible record outcome from 84-0 the last 84 games to 0-84 and their respective chances of making the playoffs. For example, if the Cubs go 49-35 the rest of the way, the Cubs will have a 87% chance of making the playoffs. As of today, Ken Roberts data suggests the Cubs have a 19.4 chance of making the playoffs. I really do encourage you to check out the site. There is a lot of information and he can explain the data much better than I can.
Sean Marshall (4-2, 2.44)
Marshall has pitched really well since his call-up this year. The only exception is one start in Texas where he was knocked out in the 4th inning. Marshall is quite a bit tougher on lefties than righties this year. In his last start, he went 6.1 innings allowing 5 hits, 1 BB and no runs while striking out 3. Sean has made one start against the Brewers. He through a quality start (6 innings pitched, 3 runs allowed) and won the game. At the plate Marshall has yet to get a hit this year in 11 at-bats. He does have 2 sacrifices though.
Ben Sheets (9-3, 3.09)
As always Sheets has been spectacular this year. Don’t let his 70-72 record fool you, he is not a .500 pitcher. Wins are way too dependent on team performance to be much use to evaluating pitchers. Sheets played on some bad Brewer teams and has been high tier pitcher for a long time. Sheets has pitched much better at home (6-1, 2.64, 9 starts) this year than away (3-2, 3.76). Hopefully, that continues today and the Cubs hit him hard. The good news is, the Cubs have always hit him hard at Wrigley. At Wrigley he is 3-4 with a 4.43 era in 10 starts.
Today’s Lineups:
Brewers (Career Vs Marshall)
Corey Hart RF (1.000, 1-1)
J.J. Hardy SS (No History)
Ryan Braun 3B (No History)
Prince Fielder 1B (.000, 0-3)
Bill Hall CF (1.000, 2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI)
Johnny Estrada (No History)
Kevin Mench LF (.000, 0-3)
Rickie Weeks 2B (No History)
Ben Sheets P
Cubs (Career vs Sheets)
Alfonso Soriano LF (.333, 1-3)
Mike Fontenot SS (No History)
Derrek Lee 1B (.359, 14-39, 5 HRs, 11 RBIs)
Aramis Ramirez 3B (.196, 9-46, 1 HR, 6 RBIs)
Cliff Floyd RF (.333, 5-15, 2 RBIs)
Mark DeRosa 2B (.273, 3-11, 1 RBI)
Angel Pagan CF (No History)
Koyie Hill C (No History)
Marshall P
Baby Bears - Yet another Cubs Blog 